When Ecuadoreans go the polls on Sunday, left-wing leaders elsewhere in Latin America will be closely watching the results.
After a series of electoral setbacks for leftist candidates and incumbent coalitions over the past two years, Lenín Moreno, the candidate of the ruling left-wing Alianza País coalition will get the largest share of the vote. Though Moreno might still be forced into a runoff, the fact that he remains the favourite to win can be explained by a combination of electoral rules, division among opposition leaders and outgoing President Rafael Correa’s wise decision not to seek a new presidential term. If Moreno becomes the next president, he will have defied two recent trends: the electoral defeat of incumbent governments and the chain of losses for left-wing candidates in Latin America.
After 10 years in power and with the country undergoing an economic crisis, the electoral prospects for Alianza País should not look good. The economy suffered a 2.3 percent recession in 2016, for example. Though unemployment has declined to 5.2 percent, down from 7.4 percent a year ago, a majority of Ecuadoreans still believe the country is moving in the wrong direction.
To read more, please access the Buenos Aires Herald.